5g Open All-internet Era: Three Power Switch To Promote Trillion Market

If a car travels at 100 kilometers an hour, a network latency of 30 milliseconds means a moving distance of 83.33 centimeters and a one millisecond moving distance is only 2.78 centimeters. In fact, a lot of traffic accidents happen between this concept. Some statistics show that the average braking response time of drivers is about 0.8 seconds. The fast response capability of automatic driving under 5G network is better than that of humans.

In a 1200-km-long Shanghai test ground, a real car is being connected to a remote driving platform in Beijing via a 5G test network. Starting, accelerating, turning, remote control in Beijing, Shanghai, vehicles and real-time driving experience is not much difference, 5G's ultra-low latency to ensure the routine driving habits in the remote control of security, ultra-high speed also make car HD camera External environment real-time control screen back.

Not long ago at a telecommunications exhibition in Beijing, a 5G remote driving platform built by Huawei, China Mobile and SAIC became the most eye-catching spot in the audience.

Before long, this prototype product will be out of the exhibition and test ground, into people's daily lives, into the oncoming 5G era.

In the technology and the demand of two-wheel drive, 5G is accelerating. Intergenerational shifts in mobile communication technology often lead to exponential improvements in system performance and spawn new business emerging in an endless stream, making it an iconic scale for social progress. 5G will achieve billions of connections, 10Gbps speed and as low as 1 millisecond delay, which will bring ultra-high-definition video, virtual reality and other extreme communication experience, more likely to detonate the car networking, industrial Internet and other vertical The rapid development of the industry.

Compared to the previous people-oriented connection, 5G more emphasis on the material connection: 5G of the three scenes, the mass communication machine, low latency and high reliability of the two scenes are based on objects as the main connection object. Large connectivity, wide area coverage and lower power consumption make the smart city, smart home represented by the Internet of Things began to integrate with mobile communications, 5G will be widely used in remote control, automatic driving, factory automation and other fields, the expected One hundred billion devices will be connected to the 5G network. An era of all things ready to come out.

The future, 5G will likely become a common technology, like electricity, the Internet has become the catalyst for many changes in the industry. This will open up to trillions of market space. Some analysts predict that by 2030, 5G will directly drive the total output of the society, and the added value of economy will reach 6.3 trillion yuan and 2.9 trillion yuan respectively, creating 8 million jobs. By 2035, 5G will create 123,000 in the world Hundreds of millions of dollars of economic output.

Technical requirements drive 5G accelerated iteration

Since the 1980s, mobile communications have evolved at an iterative rate of about 10 years. Follow this rule, mobile communications are now marching toward the 5G era.

Throughout history, the intergenerational shift in mobile communication technology has often led to an exponential increase in system performance and spawned new business emerging in an endless stream, marking the landmark of social progress.

From 1G to 2G, mobile communications have completed the transition from analogue to digital and started to support low-speed data services on the basis of voice services. From 2G to 3G, the peak rate exceeds 2Mbps, supporting mobile multimedia services such as video telephony. 4G transmission capacity has been increased an order of magnitude than 3G, the peak rate of up to 100Mbps to 1Gbps. The upcoming 5G will deliver speeds above 10Gbps, millisecond latency and ultra-dense connectivity to deliver new leaps in network performance.

Wei Kai, deputy director of China Mobile's Internet and Big Data Department of China's Information Industry Institute, told 21st Century Business Herald that under the common promotion of both technology and demand, 5G is rapidly advancing.

Technically, he said, the 5G will replace the traditional bandwidth with more sophisticated algorithms and higher computing power to enhance communications with rapidly evolving IT technologies.

He said that Moore's Law, which doubles the number of components that can be accommodated on an integrated circuit every 18-24 months, and doubled computational performance, continues to play a role in the communications arena, The receiving end can use computing power to improve communication efficiency.

Li Shan, vice president of China's telecommunications and wireless field of mobile communications said that the technical point of view, 5G and the previous generation of communication is the biggest difference is that the latter has a core technology, such as 3G has CDMA, LTE 4G 4G, but with this Different, it is through the improvement of a group of technologies to enhance performance, to meet the diverse needs. For example, the use of large-scale antenna to improve network transmission rate, the use of dense networking to meet the needs of hot spots, by reducing the air interface structure and network structure to reduce the delay and cost.

At present, 5G technology has identified eight key capability indicators: the peak rate of 10Gbps, spectral efficiency than IMT-A to enhance 3 times the mobility of 500 km / h, the delay as low as 1 millisecond, the user experience data rate of 100Mbps, connect The density reaches 10 times 6 square meters per square kilometer. The energy efficiency is 100 times higher than that of IMT-A, and the traffic density reaches 10 Mbps per square meter. The first four are the traditional indicators and the last four are the new indicators.

Due to the diversification of key indicators, 5G can support the three scenarios of eMBB (Enhanced Mobile Broadband), mMTC (Mass Communication of Machines), and uRLLC (Low Delay and High Reliable Communication), relative to a single 4G scenario. This enables the 5G to meet the ultimate experience of VR and ultra-high definition video, supporting massive IoT device access to meet the demanding requirements of car networking and industrial control.

In Wei Kai view, the development of these industries is driving the rapid development of 5G another major driving force.

Take ultra-high definition industry as an example. Xu Zheng, a professor of Institute of Optoelectronics Technology at Beijing Jiaotong University, told 21st Century Business Herald. At present, China has no problem with terminals such as panels in ultra-high definition video. However, the biggest bottleneck is the front-end transmission. The landing is conducive to breaking this bottleneck.

High speed is the primary feature of 5G and its network transmission rate will reach 10Gpbs, which means users can download a 50G Ultra HD video in 40 seconds when they use 5G, which is such as 4K / 8K ultra-high definition video, VR / AR, Speed download, cloud services and other industries provide a strong technical support.

"Internet of Things" era

Prior to the mobile communication mainly to solve the communication between people, and 5G will be the goal of all things connected to the Internet: In the future 5G era, people are only a small part of the connection, more of people and things, between objects Connection. 5G three scenes mMTC, uRLLC two scenes are the connection of the object as the goal.

5G will support massive machine communications. Wang Zhiqin, head of China IMT-2020 (5G) Propulsion Team and vice president of China ICT, said that as scenarios related to smart cities and smart homes merge deeply with mobile communications, it is estimated that hundreds of billions of devices will be connected Into the 5G network. She said that by 2030, the total number of mobile network connected devices will exceed 100 billion.

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology CCID think tank radio management researcher Peng Jian told 21st Century Business Herald reporter, 5G will be combined with the next generation of Internet IPv6, the birth of a mass of connections.

The IPv6 that is being promoted can add 340 trillion IP addresses, which will enable each sand on the earth to have its own IP address. Coupled with the access capability of 5G billions, it can meet the needs of massive network access. In addition, NB-IoT (Narrow Band Internet of Things), which is on the verge of explosive growth, will also be an important prelude to 5G commercialization, with the former having made significant breakthroughs in many areas such as sharing bicycles, remote meter reading, smart city.

"NB-IoT is very similar to 5G in terms of large connections, and NB-IoT will evolve towards 5G." Peng Jian said that 5G massive machine communications need to reduce power consumption and cost, increase the battery life of sensors and other devices, and increase Equipment life expectancy, "the power consumption of the previous technology is relatively high, and now a battery can be used for ten years, which is why NB-IoT rapid development."

In low latency and high reliability communications scenarios, car networking is a classic. A number of respondents told 21st Century Business Herald that the car networking will be the first vertical application to take the lead in landing 5G technology.

Peng Jian said that unlike other IOT to take infrared, Bluetooth and other non-uniform standards, the car network at the outset to determine the use of mobile cellular technology, 4G background in the previous, LTE-V2X already has a lot of technology accumulation, With the advent of 5G, car network is expected to transition smoothly to 5G-V2X.

At the above communication show, Huawei technical staff told 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the ultra-low latency is the core capability that 5G can support such applications, which ensures the rapid response capability of the network. Under normal circumstances, 3G network latency will reach 100 milliseconds, 4G can reach 20-30 milliseconds, and 5G network latency is further reduced to 1 millisecond.

This difference may not be obvious when surfing the Internet, but it is crucial for safety-related industries such as autopilot: if a car travels at 100 kilometers an hour, a 30 millisecond network latency means 83.33 centimeters Moving distance, while the moving distance of 1 millisecond is only 2.78 centimeters. In fact, a lot of traffic accidents happen between this concept. Some statistics show that the average braking response time of drivers is about 0.8 seconds. The fast response capability of automatic driving under 5G network is better than that of humans.

This feature will also make 5G widely used in the remote control of heavy equipment, factory automation, factory real-time monitoring, smart grid and remote surgery and other fields, greatly promote the development of industrial Internet, energy Internet, telemedicine.

According to a recent report by China's ICT institute, 5G inputs (communications equipment and communications services) in China's four major industries of industrial internet, telemedicine, car networking and energy Internet will reach 200 billion yuan and 64 billion yuan respectively by 2030, 12 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan.

Trillion-level market, the three major driving forces

A report released by Qualcomm in 2017 predicts that 5G will generate 12.3 trillion U.S. dollars of economic output by 2035. From 2020 to 2035, the contribution of 5G to global GDP growth will be equivalent to that of an economy of the same size as India .

The report argues that 5G technology will become the same generic technology as inventions such as electricity and the Internet, becoming a catalyst for transformational change in multiple industries and becoming a major driver of socio-economic development.

The "5G Economic and Social Impact White Paper" released by China's ICT Institute subsequently estimated the impact of 5G on China's economy. In terms of total output, according to the formal commercial scale of 5G in 2020, it is estimated that about 4,840 billion yuan of direct output will be brought in that year, In 2025 and 2030, this figure will increase to 3.3 trillion yuan and 6.3 trillion yuan respectively.

It is noteworthy that with the 5G commercial process continues to advance, driving power output growth will be from the network construction to the terminal equipment and then to the information service one by one to switch.

In the early days of 5G commercialization, large-scale operator network construction and 5G network equipment investment could be the main source of 5G economic output. The White Paper predicts that in 2020, the total revenue of network equipment and terminal equipment will be about 450 billion yuan. Among them, the telecom operators in the 5G network equipment investment more than 220 billion yuan, 5G equipment in all sectors of the spending over 540 billion yuan.

A telecommunications industry source said that the early investments mainly focused on the construction of 5G base stations, mainly to the main equipment and supporting network planning, construction, towers and transmission and other fields, and then transmitted to the RF devices, optical modules, base station antennas and so on.

He expects the future 5G Acer base station will be 4G 1.25 times, about 4.5 million; expected single base station average cost will reach 156.7 thousand yuan, so China's 5G network construction will reach 705 billion yuan, a total investment of 56.7% .

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology CCID think tank radio management institute Li Hongwei told 21st Century Business Herald reporter from 4G to 5G both to consider the technical leap forward, but also consider the cost of replacement devices, the current 4G network does not need to be replaced, such as Huawei The continuity has been taken into account when designing your own base station, which helps to reduce replacement costs. "In addition, network construction and terminal promotion work together to force, otherwise no matter how good the road repair, no car is not enough."

Terminal equipment will be another growth driver to succeed the network construction. The white paper predicts that in the mid-5G commercial period, spending on terminal equipment and telecommunications services from users and other industries will substantially increase. By 2025, both these expenditures are expected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan and 0.7 trillion yuan.

Terminal, the first is the replacement of mobile phones. A recent 5G consumer survey conducted by Qualcomm showed that over 86% of respondents need or are willing to use faster connections on the next smartphone, and more than 50% of respondents are interested in listing on 5G smartphones Make a purchase.

It is worth noting that in the era of 5G, mobile phones were only one of the devices in the network. As 5G penetrated into the vertical industry, other devices supported by 5G would be popularized. The white paper predicts that by 2030, spending on 5G equipment by various industries will exceed 520 billion yuan.

In the latter part of 5G business, digital content services such as 8K video and virtual reality education systems will enter into tens of thousands of households. The revenues of Internet service providers related to 5G are expected to increase significantly. White Paper predicts that by 2030, 5G spawned Internet information services revenue will reach 2.6 trillion yuan, of which telecommunications operators revenue generated by revenue of about 900 billion yuan, all types of information service providers to provide information services will generate about 17,000 100 million yuan of GDP.

"The industry says 4G changes life, 5G changes society .5G itself is a very long industry chain, including upstream base station upgrade, midstream network construction, downstream end products and application services. More importantly, 5G will become a Empowerment, which will penetrate widely into various industries such as industry, energy, healthcare, education and urban management. It may also detonate a number of vertical industries such as vehicle networking with new capabilities, thereby profoundly changing the society as a whole. At the above show, a Huawei employee confidently said.